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Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: an improved ice-core-based index for climate models
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Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: an improved ice-core-based index for climate models
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Improved ice-core-based index for climate models
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Gao
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Chaochao
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Chaochao Gao
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Robock
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Alan
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Advisory Committee
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Alan Robock
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chair
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Broccoli
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Anthony
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Anthony Broccoli
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Stenchikov
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Georgiy
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Advisory Committee
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Georgiy Stenchikov
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internal member
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Ammann
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Caspar
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Advisory Committee
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Caspar Ammann
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Rutgers University
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Graduate School - New Brunswick
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theses
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2008
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2008-10
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English
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electronic
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xv, 138 pages
Abstract
Understanding natural causes of climate change is vital to evaluate the relative impacts of human pollution and land surface modification on climate. Nevertheless, assessment of the contribution of natural causes to past climate change has been limited by limitations of the existing forcing indices. This dissertation has investigated one of the most important natural causes of climate change, volcanic eruptions, by developing a volcanic forcing index using 54 ice core records from both the Arctic and Antarctica. The extensive collection of ice core data reduces errors inherent in reconstructions based on small number of cores, which enables us to obtain much higher accuracy in both detection of events and quantification of the radiative effects. I extracted volcanic signals by applying a high-pass loess filter to each ice core record and examining peaks that exceed twice the 31-yr running median absolute deviation. I then studied the spatial pattern of volcanic sulfate deposition on Greenland and Antarctica, and combined this knowledge with a new understanding of stratospheric transport of volcanic aerosols to produce a forcing index as a function of month from 501 to 2000 CE, latitude in 10° bands, and height from 9 to 30 km at 0.5 km resolution. This index is the longest and most advanced volcanic forcing index of the type. It eliminates or minimizes many aspects of problems previous reconstruction had with the ice core records.
I forced an energy balance model with this new volcanic forcing index, together with solar and anthropogenic forcing, to simulate the large scale temperature response over the past 1500 years. The results agree well with instrumental observations for the past 150 years and reasonably well with proxy records for the entire period. Through better characterization of the natural causes of climate change, this new data set will lead to improved prediction of anthropogenic impacts on climate.
Previous work suggested the 15th century Kuwae eruption might have been a two-phase event occurred somewhere between 1450-1464 CE, injecting 150-400 Tg of sulfate aerosol into the atmosphere. Using 33 ice core records I found it was indeed a single-phase eruption occurred during late 1452 to early 1453 CE and it emitted about 140 Tg of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere with 2(SH):1(NH) hemispheric partitioning. This finding provides an important reference to evaluate and improve the dating of ice core records.
I forced an energy balance model with this new volcanic forcing index, together with solar and anthropogenic forcing, to simulate the large scale temperature response over the past 1500 years. The results agree well with instrumental observations for the past 150 years and reasonably well with proxy records for the entire period. Through better characterization of the natural causes of climate change, this new data set will lead to improved prediction of anthropogenic impacts on climate.
Previous work suggested the 15th century Kuwae eruption might have been a two-phase event occurred somewhere between 1450-1464 CE, injecting 150-400 Tg of sulfate aerosol into the atmosphere. Using 33 ice core records I found it was indeed a single-phase eruption occurred during late 1452 to early 1453 CE and it emitted about 140 Tg of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere with 2(SH):1(NH) hemispheric partitioning. This finding provides an important reference to evaluate and improve the dating of ice core records.
Note
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Ph.D.
Note
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Includes bibliographical references (p. 82-93).
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Environmental Sciences
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Volcanoes--Climatic factors
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Topic
Ice cores
Subject
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Topic
Temperature measurements
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Graduate School - New Brunswick Electronic Theses and Dissertations
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rucore19991600001
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http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.2/rucore10001600001.ETD.17475
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doi:10.7282/T30002FR
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ETD doctoral
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Chaochao Gao
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Rutgers University. Graduate School - New Brunswick
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I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.
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