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Effect of water quality model uncertainty on the Passaic total maximum daily load and water quality trading program for total phosphorus

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Text
TitleInfo (ID = T-1)
Title
Effect of water quality model uncertainty on the Passaic total maximum daily load and water quality trading program for total phosphorus
SubTitle
PartName
PartNumber
NonSort
Identifier (displayLabel = ); (invalid = )
ETD_1867
Identifier (type = hdl)
http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.2/rucore10001600001.ETD.000051840
Language (objectPart = )
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eng
Genre (authority = marcgt)
theses
Subject (ID = SBJ-1); (authority = RUETD)
Topic
Environmental Sciences
Subject (ID = SBJ-2); (authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Water quality management--New Jersey--Passaic River
Subject (ID = SBJ-3); (authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Water--Pollution--Total maximum daily load--New Jersey--Passaic River
Subject (ID = SBJ-4); (authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Phosphorus--Environmental aspects--New Jersey--Passaic River
Abstract
Water quality modeling is a major source of scientific uncertainty in the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process. The effects of these uncertainties extend to water quality trading programs designed to implement TMDLs. This is the first study to examine the effects of water quality model uncertainty on a nutrient trading program. The method introduced in this study involved application of simple statistical tools to assess the credibility of the uncertainty analysis when compared to observed data. The method's efficiency and practicality directly address a main obstacle that has hindered a wider practice of uncertainty analyses of water quality models.
This study identified how water quality model uncertainty affects outcomes related to the Non-Tidal Passaic River Basin TMDL for total phosphorus (TP) and potential trades of TP between wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The TMDL margin of safety was found to be sufficient with respect to attaining dissolved oxygen (DO) surface water quality standards at Dundee Lake, and achieving a 70% reduction in diverted TP load from the Wanaque South intake to the Wanaque Reservoir. Although the TMDL scenario showed greater than 10% probability of exceeding the target for chlorophyll-a (chl-a) at Dundee Lake, the efficacy of TMDL measures was clearly demonstrated when compared directly to actual conditions in the critical drought period of Water Year 2002. The uncertainty analysis found no evidence to suggest that the outcome of trades between WWTPs, as compared with command and control regulation, will significantly increase uncertainty in the attainment of DO surface water quality standards, site-specific chl-a criteria, and reduction targets for diverted TP load at affected potential hot spots in the watershed. Each simulated trading scenario demonstrated parity with or improvement from the baseline at the TMDL critical locations and low risk of hot spots elsewhere.
Finally, research on risk communication techniques was synthesized to help the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection in its future public participation efforts on the Passaic water quality trading program. A strategy based on the principles of 'outrage management' was outlined for conducting a public meeting.
PhysicalDescription
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electronic resource
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xxiv, 300 p. : ill.
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Ph.D.
Note (type = bibliography)
Includes bibliographical references (p. 288-298)
Note (type = statement of responsibility)
by Josef Sy Kardos
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Kardos
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Josef Sy
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1975-
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author
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Josef Sy Kardos
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Obropta
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Christopher
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chair
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Advisory Committee
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Christopher C. Obropta
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Goldfarb
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William
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internal member
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Advisory Committee
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William Goldfarb
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Strom
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Peter
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Advisory Committee
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Peter F. Strom
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Uchrin
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Christopher
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internal member
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Advisory Committee
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Christopher G. Uchrin
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Ferrara
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Raymond
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outside member
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Advisory Committee
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Raymond A. Ferrara
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Rutgers University
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degree grantor
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Graduate School - New Brunswick
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school
OriginInfo
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2009
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2009-10
Place
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xx
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Title
Rutgers University Electronic Theses and Dissertations
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ETD
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Title
Graduate School - New Brunswick Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Identifier (type = local)
rucore19991600001
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NjNbRU
Identifier (type = doi)
doi:10.7282/T3K937QX
Genre (authority = ExL-Esploro)
ETD doctoral
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The author owns the copyright to this work
Copyright
Status
Copyright protected
Notice
Note
Availability
Status
Open
Reason
Permission or license
Note
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Kardos
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Josef
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Josef Kardos
Affiliation
Rutgers University. Graduate School - New Brunswick
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Author Agreement License
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I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.
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