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Essays on financial econometrics
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Essays on financial econometrics
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ETD_2260
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http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.2/rucore10001600001.ETD.000052098
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eng
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theses
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Economics
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Econometrics
Abstract
This dissertation comprises of three essays in financial econometrics. The first essay discusses the efficacy of alternative simulation models of the short term interest rate. This is done by constructing consistent specification tests that allow us to carry out a "horse-race" comparing various one, two, and three factor models (possiblely with jumps), across multiple historical sample periods. We find that the choice of model for simulating the future distribution of short rates is highly sample dependent, and structural breaks appear to be an important component to be considered.
The second essay presents a model that focuses on exploring the profitability of portfolio-based trading strategies that variously combine downside risk, momentum, and mean reversion by carrying out a series of pseudo real-time trading experiments using different combination trading strategies. We find, contrary to the existing literature, that momentum effects are sensitive to value and size factors. In particular, downside risk plays an important role when portfolios are sorted based on size and value.
The third essay re-examines the empirical linkage between macroeconomic variables and financial markets. Our evaluation focuses on the use of a large variety of state-of-the-art ex-ante predictive accuracy tests as well as more standard in-sample regression diagnostics. We observe substantive shifts in the dynamics of macroeconomic factor models, which have noteworthy effects on the predictive content of the factors when used to predict returns.
The second essay presents a model that focuses on exploring the profitability of portfolio-based trading strategies that variously combine downside risk, momentum, and mean reversion by carrying out a series of pseudo real-time trading experiments using different combination trading strategies. We find, contrary to the existing literature, that momentum effects are sensitive to value and size factors. In particular, downside risk plays an important role when portfolios are sorted based on size and value.
The third essay re-examines the empirical linkage between macroeconomic variables and financial markets. Our evaluation focuses on the use of a large variety of state-of-the-art ex-ante predictive accuracy tests as well as more standard in-sample regression diagnostics. We observe substantive shifts in the dynamics of macroeconomic factor models, which have noteworthy effects on the predictive content of the factors when used to predict returns.
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electronic resource
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x, 142 p. : ill.
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Ph.D.
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Includes bibliographical references (p. 84-88)
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by Lili Cai
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Cai
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Lili
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Lili Cai
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Swanson
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Norman
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Norman Rasmus Swanson
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Klein
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Roger
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Roger Klein
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Landon-Lane
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John
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John Landon-Lane
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Goldman
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Elena
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Elena Goldman
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Rutgers University
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Graduate School - New Brunswick
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2010
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2010-01
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xx
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Rutgers University Electronic Theses and Dissertations
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Graduate School - New Brunswick Electronic Theses and Dissertations
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doi:10.7282/T3GM87FD
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ETD doctoral
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The author owns the copyright to this work.
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Open
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Cai
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Lili
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2009-11-23 03:15:22
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I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.
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Lili Cai
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Rutgers University. Graduate School - New Brunswick
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I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.
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