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Reconstructed drought variability across Mongolia based on tree-ring records
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Title
Reconstructed drought variability across Mongolia based on tree-ring records
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ETD_2348
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http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.2/rucore10001600001.ETD.000052107
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eng
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theses
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Geography
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(authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Climatic changes--Mongolia
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(authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Droughts--Mongolia
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(authority = lcsh/lcnaf)
Geographic
Mongolia--Climate
Abstract
Our understanding of climate in Mongolia is hindered by the extremely limited meteorological data in the region. Longer records, and insight into temporal drought patterns could aid greatly in anticipating extreme events and agrarian planning. Tree-ring reconstructions can provide longer, high-resolution records of climate variability in regions where recorded data are limited.
In central Mongolia, streamflow for the Selenge River (1637-1997), the largest river in Mongolia, was reconstructed. Regression models resulted in a reconstruction of streamflow that explains 49 percent of the flow variation. The wettest 5-year period was 1764-1768 and the driest period was 1854-1858. The most extended wet period is 1794-1802 and an extended dry period is 1778-1783. Spectral analysis, a method for identifying periodicities within a time series, indicated significant variation in the frequencies common to Pacific Ocean variations (PDO and ENSO) and also some quasi-solar and lunar-nodal periodicities.
In the far west, a grid cell of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was reconstructed (1565-2003) and explains 41 percent of the total variance in the instrumental PDSI. The reconstruction shows that starting in the 20th Century and continuing into the 21st Century there was a large-scale regional increase in growing-season moisture conditions compared to the prior centuries, a trend not seen in central or eastern Mongolian tree-ring reconstructions. Spectral analysis shows significant periodicities at approximately 22 (99% significance level), 11 (90%), 7 (99%), and 5 (99%) years.
Also presented is a summer drought reconstruction for all of Mongolia, based on a network of 34 tree-ring chronologies that span the country. The PDSI model explains 61% of the variance over the most replicated period (1703-1993) and nested model methods were used to create the longest reconstruction possible (1520-1993). The reconstruction shows that droughts from 1999-2002, felt across central and eastern Mongolia, were extreme compared to the past 500 years. Significant periodicities are found at 40 (90%), 19.3 -25 (99%), 11.6 (95%), 6.4-7.2 (95%), and 2.8 years (99%).
These high-resolution drought reconstructions supplement and extend the sparse meteorological data in Mongolia and allow for a long-term perspective of drought across Mongolia. As temperatures continue to rise in Mongolia, and much of the Northern hemisphere, drought may be an increasingly dire issue for human and environmental well being. Future predictions of drought and forecast capabilities are summarized, as are current climate risk management program.
In central Mongolia, streamflow for the Selenge River (1637-1997), the largest river in Mongolia, was reconstructed. Regression models resulted in a reconstruction of streamflow that explains 49 percent of the flow variation. The wettest 5-year period was 1764-1768 and the driest period was 1854-1858. The most extended wet period is 1794-1802 and an extended dry period is 1778-1783. Spectral analysis, a method for identifying periodicities within a time series, indicated significant variation in the frequencies common to Pacific Ocean variations (PDO and ENSO) and also some quasi-solar and lunar-nodal periodicities.
In the far west, a grid cell of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was reconstructed (1565-2003) and explains 41 percent of the total variance in the instrumental PDSI. The reconstruction shows that starting in the 20th Century and continuing into the 21st Century there was a large-scale regional increase in growing-season moisture conditions compared to the prior centuries, a trend not seen in central or eastern Mongolian tree-ring reconstructions. Spectral analysis shows significant periodicities at approximately 22 (99% significance level), 11 (90%), 7 (99%), and 5 (99%) years.
Also presented is a summer drought reconstruction for all of Mongolia, based on a network of 34 tree-ring chronologies that span the country. The PDSI model explains 61% of the variance over the most replicated period (1703-1993) and nested model methods were used to create the longest reconstruction possible (1520-1993). The reconstruction shows that droughts from 1999-2002, felt across central and eastern Mongolia, were extreme compared to the past 500 years. Significant periodicities are found at 40 (90%), 19.3 -25 (99%), 11.6 (95%), 6.4-7.2 (95%), and 2.8 years (99%).
These high-resolution drought reconstructions supplement and extend the sparse meteorological data in Mongolia and allow for a long-term perspective of drought across Mongolia. As temperatures continue to rise in Mongolia, and much of the Northern hemisphere, drought may be an increasingly dire issue for human and environmental well being. Future predictions of drought and forecast capabilities are summarized, as are current climate risk management program.
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electronic resource
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xvi, 157 p. : ill.
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Ph.D.
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by Nicole K. Davi
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Davi
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Nicole K.
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1971-
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Nicole K. Davi
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Robinson
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David
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David Robinson
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Schneider
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Laura
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Laura Schneider
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Broccoli
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Tony
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Tony Broccoli
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Gordon
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Gordon Jacoby
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Rutgers University
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Graduate School - New Brunswick
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2010
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2010-01
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xx
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Rutgers University Electronic Theses and Dissertations
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Graduate School - New Brunswick Electronic Theses and Dissertations
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doi:10.7282/T3N879X7
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ETD doctoral
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The author owns the copyright to this work.
Copyright
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Copyright protected
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Open
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Permission or license
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Davi
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Nicole
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2009-12-26 14:00:14
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Nicole Davi
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Rutgers University. Graduate School - New Brunswick
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I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.
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