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Predicting and monitoring drought in the humid tropics
Descriptive
TypeOfResource
Text
TitleInfo
(ID = T-1)
Title
Predicting and monitoring drought in the humid tropics
SubTitle
a case study on Sri Lanka
Identifier
ETD_2865
Identifier
(type = hdl)
http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.1/rucore10001600001.ETD.000056342
Language
LanguageTerm
(authority = ISO639-2);
(type = code)
eng
Genre
(authority = marcgt)
theses
Subject
(ID = SBJ-1);
(authority = RUETD)
Topic
Geography
Subject
(ID = SBJ-2);
(authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Tropics--Climate
Subject
(ID = SBJ-3);
(authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Drought forecasting
Subject
(ID = SBJ-4);
(authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Long-range weather forecasting
Subject
(ID = SBJ-5);
(authority = lcsh/lcnaf)
Geographic
Sri Lanka--Climate
Abstract
(type = abstract)
This dissertation develops an operational tool for predicting and monitoring drought applicable to the humid tropics. Using Sri Lanka as a case example, it examines whether droughts in the humid tropics are predictable on an operational basis, and investigates how moisture stress may be monitored as a season unfurls. Droughts in Sri Lanka occur when rainfall during the main cultivation season – the Maha (October-March) – fails. Such droughts profoundly impact rice production. From 1951-2008, there were 4 extreme [Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) <-2.0], 1 severe (-1.9<SPI<-1.5), 5 moderate (-1.49<SPI<-1.0) and 4 mild (-0.99<SPI<-0.5) droughts. Maha droughts can be operationally predicted by forecasting the failure of the two rainfall regimes during the season. The contemporaneous westerly zonal wind at 850hPa (U850), over 60⁰E-105⁰E and 5⁰S-15⁰N, controls the strength of the October-November convective rains – with rain failure associated with anomalously strong U850. The contemporaneous northerly vertical shear of the mean meridional wind ( ), over 80⁰E-90⁰E and 0⁰N-20⁰N, controls the strength of the December-February northeast monsoon rains – with rain failure associated with an anomalously weak Vs. Drought forecast skill was assessed for 1981-2002 using predicted fields of U850 issued in September, and Vs, issued in November, from the NCEP Climate Forecast System and the ECHAM4.5 forced with two scenarios of prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. October-November rain failure can be predicted with good skill over the rice cultivation areas in the central and southeastern regions using forecast U850 from the two versions of the ECHAM4.5. December-February rain failure can be predicted with good skill in the rice cultivation areas in the eastern, central and north central regions with forecast Vs from the ECHAM4.5 forced with constructed analogues of SST anomalies. The utility of the Vegetation Temperature Condition Index (VTCI) – calculated with Terra-MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index products – as an indicator of abnormally wet or dry conditions was tested for the Maha season. Results show that the VTCI is a suitable metric for the near-real time monitoring of Maha drought because it captures the onset and progression of moisture stress as the season unfurls and complements the seasonal rainfall forecast.
PhysicalDescription
Form
(authority = gmd)
electronic resource
Extent
xvi, 148 p. : ill.
InternetMediaType
application/pdf
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text/xml
Note
(type = degree)
Ph.D.
Note
(type = bibliography)
Includes bibliographical references
Note
(type = vita)
Includes vita
Note
(type = statement of responsibility)
by Dinali Nelun Fernando
Name
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Fernando
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Dinali Nelun
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1975-
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author
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Dinali Fernando
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(type = family)
Robinson
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(type = given)
David A.
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chair
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Advisory Committee
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David A. Robinson
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(type = personal)
NamePart
(type = family)
Schneider
NamePart
(type = given)
Laura C.
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internal member
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Advisory Committee
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Laura C. Schneider
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(type = personal)
NamePart
(type = family)
Xu
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(type = given)
Ming
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internal member
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Advisory Committee
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Ming Xu
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(ID = NAME-5);
(type = personal)
NamePart
(type = family)
Ward
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(type = given)
Michael Neil
Role
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outside member
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Advisory Committee
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Michael Neil Ward
Name
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NamePart
Rutgers University
Role
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degree grantor
Name
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NamePart
Graduate School - New Brunswick
Role
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(authority = RULIB)
school
OriginInfo
DateCreated
(qualifier = exact)
2010
DateOther
(qualifier = exact);
(type = degree)
2010-10
Place
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(type = code)
xx
RelatedItem
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TitleInfo
Title
Rutgers University Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Identifier
(type = RULIB)
ETD
RelatedItem
(type = host)
TitleInfo
Title
Graduate School - New Brunswick Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Identifier
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rucore19991600001
Location
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(displayLabel = Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey)
NjNbRU
Identifier
(type = doi)
doi:10.7282/T3348K48
Genre
(authority = ExL-Esploro)
ETD doctoral
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Rights
RightsDeclaration
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(ID = rulibRdec0006)
The author owns the copyright to this work.
Copyright
Status
Copyright protected
Availability
Status
Open
Reason
Permission or license
RightsHolder
(ID = PRH-1);
(type = personal)
Name
FamilyName
Fernando
GivenName
Dinali
Role
Copyright Holder
RightsEvent
(ID = RE-1);
(AUTHORITY = rulib)
Type
Permission or license
DateTime
2010-09-15 08:51:20
AssociatedEntity
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(AUTHORITY = rulib)
Role
Copyright holder
Name
Dinali Fernando
Affiliation
Rutgers University. Graduate School - New Brunswick
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Type
License
Name
Author Agreement License
Detail
I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.
RightsEvent
(ID = RE-2);
(AUTHORITY = rulib)
Type
Embargo
DateTime
2010-10-31
Detail
Access to this PDF has been restricted at the author's request. It will be publicly available after May 2nd, 2011.
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Technical
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ETD
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application/pdf
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application/x-tar
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6021120
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