Motor vehicle theft costs the United States billions of dollars each year in direct and indirect losses. More specifically, vehicle theft in areas near borders and ports has been cited as a significant growing problem in both academic studies and media reports. Although no reliable measure of international vehicle theft exists, the National Insurance Crime Bureau and other agencies acknowledge that a disproportionate number of vehicles are stolen in cities and towns near borders and ports. Yet, with few exceptions, research studies have not focused on vehicle theft in these high-risk areas. This dissertation utilizes incident-level data from a U.S.-Mexico border area city (Chula Vista, California) and a U.S. port area city (Newark, New Jersey) to investigate vehicle theft patterns related to exporting in the two locations. Two separate analyses were conducted using recovery status and recovery country as dependent variables in logistic regression models. Predictor variables were constructed based on previous research findings and expectations from a rational choice framework. In the multivariate comparison between unrecovered vehicles and recovered vehicles in both sites, few significant predictors emerged. Overall, there were more statistically significant predictors in Chula Vista than in Newark. Specifically, in Chula Vista, iii unrecovered vehicle thefts are more likely to be larger vehicle types. In a second analysis, vehicles stolen in Chula Vista and recovered in Mexico were compared to a random sample of vehicles stolen in Chula Vista and recovered domestically. Vehicles stolen in Chula Vista and recovered in Mexico are significantly younger and more expensive than vehicles recovered in the U.S. Additionally, sports utility vehicles and pick-up trucks are more likely to be taken to Mexico, while 2-door cars are more likely to be recovered domestically. The current study provides partial support for a link between rational choice perspective’s focus on increasing rewards and professional vehicle theft in Mexico. It appears that less consideration is given to reducing effort and risk by professional thieves in these areas in comparison to amateur thieves. From a policy standpoint, this study indicates that prevention efforts should target certain vehicles in border cities and focus less on space and time.
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