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Impact of four WRF modifications upon eight nor’easter simulations
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Nicholls, Stephen Davi. Impact of four WRF modifications upon eight nor’easter simulations. Retrieved from https://doi.org/doi:10.7282/T3BZ64TJ

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TitleImpact of four WRF modifications upon eight nor’easter simulations
NameNicholls, Stephen Davi (author); Decker, Steven G. (chair); Haidvogel, Dale B. (internal member); Miller, Mark (internal member); Mohr, Karen I. (outside member); Rutgers University; Graduate School - New Brunswick
Date Created2012
Other Date2012-10 (degree)
SubjectAtmospheric Science, Northeast storms--Forecasting, Weather forecasting--United States
Extentxviii, 191 p. : ill.
DescriptionThis dissertation investigated the impact of four modifications to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model during eight nor’easter simulations. Specifically these modification include: 1) Different WRF model versions, 2) Usage of different bulk microphysics schemes created between 1983-2011, 3) Assimilation of radio occultation data, and 4) Fully coupling WRF to a dynamic ocean model. Model simulations were conducted for 180 hours, starting roughly 72 hours prior to the first precipitation impacts in the highly populated Mid-Atlantic US and associated cyclogenesis. Simulation accuracy was assessed by comparing each simulation to Global Forecasting System model analysis. Despite various updates, errors in both storm track and simulated storm intensity were highest in the newest WRF version and were strongly associated with mid-tropospheric heat release. Error analysis of WRF-version simulations revealed the newest WRF model version (WRF 3.3) had worst overall simulation accuracy due to errors in simulated winds, mid-tropospheric latent heat release and similar dynamical fields, whereas WRF 3.2 was best. Comparison of simulations using different microphysics parameterization revealed both storm tracks and maximum cyclone intensity revealed little to no variation between schemes due to their common programming heritage. Error analysis of the local storm environment revealed simulations little impact from the inclusion of graupel, however the newer microphysics parameterization tended to be more accurate. In contrast, for the entire environment (nor’easter and background) the newest BMPS scheme only performed on-par with the oldest BMPS within the inner most model domains. Improvements to both storm track and overall nor’easter simulation accuracy were typically inversely proportional to the data assimilation period length and was strongly sensitive to cyclone-to-sounding distance and stratospheric data assimilation errors. Simulation accuracy however was not proportional to the total number of assimilated observations. Assimilation of radio occultation data and radiosonde data were found to lead to further decreases in model simulation errors. Finally, coupling WRF to an ocean model produced no notable changes in storm track, slightly improved simulations of cyclone intensity, and marginally better simulations of the local storm environment (54.3% of periods). Impacts from ocean-atmosphere model coupling were limited to below 500 hPa.
NotePh.D.
NoteIncludes bibliographical references
Noteby Stephen David Nicholls
Genretheses, ETD doctoral
Persistent URLhttps://doi.org/doi:10.7282/T3BZ64TJ
Languageeng
CollectionGraduate School - New Brunswick Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Organization NameRutgers, The State University of New Jersey
RightsThe author owns the copyright to this work.
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