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Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage

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TitleInfo
Title
Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage
Language
LanguageTerm (authority = ISO 639-3:2007); (type = text)
English
Genre (authority = RULIB-FS)
Article, Refereed
Genre (authority = NISO JAV)
Accepted Manuscript (AM)
Subject (authority = LCSH)
Topic
Sea level--Environmental aspects
Subject (authority = LCSH)
Topic
Glacial climates
Subject (authority = LCSH)
Topic
Global warming
Subject (authority = LCSH)
Topic
Global temperature changes
Subject (authority = LCSH)
Topic
Oceanography
Subject (authority = LCSH)
Topic
Ice caps
Subject (authority = LCSH)
Topic
Climatic changes
Abstract (type = abstract)
With polar temperatures ∼3–5 °C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (∼125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1–2 °C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (≥-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr-1 but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr-1. Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.
TypeOfResource
Text
PhysicalDescription
InternetMediaType
application/pdf
Extent
31 p.
Note (type = original version)
This is a post-print version of an article published in Nature. The published version is available at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7275/full/nature08686.html
Note (type = peerReview)
Peer reviewed
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Kopp
NamePart (type = given)
Robert E.
Affiliation
Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Simons
NamePart (type = given)
Frederik J.
Affiliation
Department of Geosciences, Princeton University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Mitrovica
NamePart (type = given)
Jerry X.
Affiliation
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Maloof
NamePart (type = given)
Adam C.
Affiliation
Department of Geosciences, Princeton University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Oppenheimer
NamePart (type = given)
Michael
Affiliation
Department of Geosciences, Princeton University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (authority = RutgersOrg-Department); (type = corporate)
NamePart
Earth and Planetary Sciences
Name (authority = RutgersOrg-School); (type = corporate)
NamePart
School of Arts and Sciences (SAS) (New Brunswick)
OriginInfo
Publisher
Macmillan Publishers Limited
DateCreated (encoding = w3cdtf); (keyDate = yes); (qualifier = exact)
2009-12-17
RelatedItem (type = host)
TitleInfo
Title
Kopp, Robert E.
Identifier (type = local)
rucore30119200001
Identifier (type = hdl)
http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.1/rucore30119200001.Manuscript.000067302
Identifier (type = doi)
doi:10.7282/T3BK19QK
Location
PhysicalLocation (authority = marcorg); (displayLabel = Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey)
NjNbRU
Extension
DescriptiveEvent
Type
Citation
DateTime (encoding = w3cdtf)
2009
AssociatedObject
Type
Journal
Relationship
Has part
Name
Nature
Identifier (type = volume and issue)
462
Reference (type = digital)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08686
Detail
863-867
Genre (authority = ExL-Esploro)
Accepted Manuscript
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Rights

RightsHolder (type = corporate)
Name
Macmillan Publishers Limited
Role
Copyright holder
RightsDeclaration (AUTHORITY = FS); (ID = rulibRdec0004)
Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder.
Copyright
Status
Copyright protected
Availability
Status
Open
Reason
Permission or license
RightsEvent
Type
Permission or license
AssociatedObject
Type
License
Name
Multiple author license v. 1
Detail
I hereby grant to Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (Rutgers) the non-exclusive right to retain, reproduce, and distribute the deposited work (Work) in whole or in part, in and from its electronic format, without fee. This agreement does not represent a transfer of copyright to Rutgers.Rutgers may make and keep more than one copy of the Work for purposes of security, backup, preservation, and access and may migrate the Work to any medium or format for the purpose of preservation and access in the future. Rutgers will not make any alteration, other than as allowed by this agreement, to the Work.I represent and warrant to Rutgers that the Work is my original work. I also represent that the Work does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe or violate any rights of others.I further represent and warrant that I have obtained all necessary rights to permit Rutgers to reproduce and distribute the Work and that any third-party owned content is clearly identified and acknowledged within the Work.By granting this license, I acknowledge that I have read and agreed to the terms of this agreement and all related RUcore and Rutgers policies.
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Technical

RULTechMD (ID = TECHNICAL1)
ContentModel
Manuscript
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