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Assessing the viability of index insurance as an adaptation tool in a changing climate context
Descriptive
TitleInfo
Title
Assessing the viability of index insurance as an adaptation tool in a changing climate context
SubTitle
case Study in the West African Sahel
Name
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Siebert
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Asher
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1980-
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Asher Siebert
Role
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author
Name
(type = personal)
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(type = family)
Robinson
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(type = given)
David
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David Robinson
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Advisory Committee
Role
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(authority = RULIB)
chair
Name
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NamePart
(type = family)
Leichenko
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Robin
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Robin Leichenko
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Advisory Committee
Role
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internal member
Name
(type = personal)
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(type = family)
Rennermalm
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(type = given)
Asa
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Asa Rennermalm
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Advisory Committee
Role
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internal member
Name
(type = personal)
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(type = family)
Ward
NamePart
(type = given)
Neil
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Neil Ward
Affiliation
Advisory Committee
Role
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outside member
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Rutgers University
Role
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degree grantor
Name
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Graduate School - New Brunswick
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school
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Text
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theses
OriginInfo
DateCreated
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2015
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(type = degree)
2015-01
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2015
Place
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xx
Language
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eng
Abstract
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This dissertation contributes to the literatures on climate extremes, climate change, and financial adaptation. In a developing world context, weather based index insurance is emerging as a potential financial adaptation for poor populations that have historically been excluded from financial markets. Index insurance has potential drawbacks as well as benefits and there are a number of practical implementation challenges. However, as index insurance is sensitive to threshold crossing extreme event (TCE) frequency and as climate change renders the climate system non-stationary, there is a need to assess how the frequency of extreme events may change as the climate system evolves. In an effort to address this research question for both hydroclimatological extremes (floods and droughts) and their associated risks, this dissertation explores the potential long-term viability of drought index insurance contracts for subsistence millet farmers and flood index insurance contracts for irrigated rice farmers in the West African Sahel nations of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Potential hypothetical contracts were chosen on the basis of correlation analysis and Gerrity skill analysis between multiple potential geophysical indices and national crop production data. Monte Carlo statistical methods are used extensively to simulate future streamflow and precipitation scenarios and are integrated with global climate model projections of precipitation. TCE frequency is found to be particularly sensitive to multi-decadal variability (MDV) and to changes in the mean (and less sensitive to changes in the variability). Moderate changes in the mean can have a more than two fold impact on the TCE frequency and multi-decadal variability typical of the region is shown to have a significant effect on the likelihood of a large number of TCEs in a specified time window. These changes to TCE frequency have important implications for both the actuarial and uncertainty related costs of index insurance over time; thereby creating challenges for long term index insurance viability. While specific results are simulation dependent, the more extreme scenarios indicate that there may be important limitations to the viability of index insurance in the future.
Subject
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Topic
Geography
Subject
(authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Climate change--Africa
Subject
(authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Africa, West--Environmental conditions
Subject
(authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Insurance--Africa
RelatedItem
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TitleInfo
Title
Rutgers University Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Identifier
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ETD
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ETD_6086
PhysicalDescription
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electronic resource
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application/pdf
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text/xml
Extent
1 online resource (xiv, 301 p. : ill.)
Note
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Ph.D.
Note
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Includes bibliographical references
Note
(type = statement of responsibility)
by Asher Siebert
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TitleInfo
Title
Graduate School - New Brunswick Electronic Theses and Dissertations
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rucore19991600001
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NjNbRU
Identifier
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doi:10.7282/T39888QD
Genre
(authority = ExL-Esploro)
ETD doctoral
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Rights
RightsDeclaration
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The author owns the copyright to this work.
RightsHolder
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Name
FamilyName
Siebert
GivenName
Asher
Role
Copyright Holder
RightsEvent
Type
Permission or license
DateTime
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2014-12-19 01:31:36
AssociatedEntity
Name
Asher Siebert
Role
Copyright holder
Affiliation
Rutgers University. Graduate School - New Brunswick
AssociatedObject
Type
License
Name
Author Agreement License
Detail
I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.
Copyright
Status
Copyright protected
Availability
Status
Open
Reason
Permission or license
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Technical
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ETD
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windows xp
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