Text

theses

In recent years, Pakistan is suffering 25-40% shortfall of electricity supply nationwide that stagnated the country's economic growth and resulted into political turmoil and social instability. The energy deficiency is especially ironic to the fact that Pakistan has huge untapped coal reserves, which can be used to cope with the energy needs of the country for next few centuries. We study the development of a vast infrastructure, namely, the energy supply chain (network), currently non-existent in Pakistan. Such an infrastructure or network connects coal reserves with demand zones by generating and transmitting electricity from coal-fired power plants but it requires a significant investment. However, Pakistan is in heavy debts and its financial status only allows limited investment for the energy sector, which leads to a vicious cycle that revolves around energy deficiency, economic slow-down and a lack of investment in energy sector. The objective of this thesis is to find a strategic plan that builds up energy infrastructure (mines, rail systems, power plants, transmission network) dynamically in an optimal and sustainable way by taking into account the interaction between energy gaps and economic growth so that the total energy gap is minimized. Part 1 of this dissertation presents an overview of energy supply chain, literature review along with detailed study of different settings of power plants and demand zones under static environment to understand trade-offs and develop insights among key players of energy supply chain. The heuristics developed in this part explain the structural properties of our problem to optimally build up a dynamic energy supply chain efficiently. In Part 2 of this study, we develop an optimization-based mathematical model that quantifies the interplay of various variables and trade-offs, and determines which reserve(s) to be mined and where to locate the power plants strategically over time so as to reduce the energy gap as fast as the meager budget allows. Specifically, the mathematical model aims at designing a strategic plan that builds up energy infrastructure (mines, rail systems, power plants, transmission network) dynamically in an optimal and sustainable way by taking into account the interaction between energy gaps and economic growth. For various time horizons (25 or 50 years) and investment plans as a percentage of annual GDP, we show that the optimal solution reduces energy gap and improves net GDP (total GDP less investment in energy sector) much faster than the government plan. In Part 3, sustainability aspects that include economic, environmental and social dimensions of current energy supply chain are discussed. Economic analysis focused on key issues related to diversity of energy supplies, availability, affordability, continuity of supply and vulnerability to foreign threats. EIO-LCA (economic input output life cycle assessment) approach is used to analyze the impact of GHG emissions on environment from electricity generation through coal. Finally, social dimension is discussed with the aid of ecological system theory. This work can be extended in several directions. First, the mathematical model developed for coal resources can be extended to other energy resources such as oil, gas and hydro, etc. to address similar issues. Second, characterizing the mathematical properties of energy supply chain for more efficient solution algorithms can be another extension of this research. Finally, an energy portfolio for optimal energy mix can be the next-level of complexity to answer in future studies.

ETD_6189

Ph.D.

Includes bibliographical references

Includes vita

by Raza Ali Rafique

doi:10.7282/T3SQ927V

ETD doctoral

The author owns the copyright to this work.