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Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

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TypeOfResource
Text
TitleInfo
Title
Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Little
NamePart (type = given)
Christopher M.
Affiliation
Princeton University
Role
RoleTerm (type = text); (authority = marcrt)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Horton
NamePart (type = given)
Radley M.
Affiliation
Columbia University
Role
RoleTerm (type = text); (authority = marcrt)
author
Name (type = personal); (authority = orcid); (authorityURI = http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/identifiers/orcid.html); (valueURI = http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4016-9428)
NamePart (type = family)
Kopp
NamePart (type = given)
Robert E.
Affiliation
Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University
Role
RoleTerm (type = text); (authority = marcrt)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Oppenheimer
NamePart (type = given)
Michael
Affiliation
Princeton University
Role
RoleTerm (type = text); (authority = marcrt)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Yip
NamePart (type = given)
Stan
Affiliation
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Role
RoleTerm (type = text); (authority = marcrt)
author
Name (type = corporate); (authority = RutgersOrg-Department)
NamePart
Earth and Planetary Sciences
Name (type = corporate); (authority = RutgersOrg-School)
NamePart
School of Arts and Sciences (SAS) (New Brunswick)
Genre (authority = RULIB-FS)
Article, Refereed
Genre (authority = NISO JAV)
Version of Record (VoR)
Note (type = peerReview)
Peer reviewed
OriginInfo
DateIssued (encoding = w3cdtf); (qualifier = exact); (keyDate = yes)
2015
Abstract (type = Abstract)
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 “representative concentration pathways” (CMIP5 RCP) simulations quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ due to: 1) forcing; 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs); and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the differentiation (“emergence”) of RCPs, depend upon the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, we partition uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level, at a global and local scale, using a 164-member ensemble of 21st century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the 21st century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 5 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.
PhysicalDescription
InternetMediaType
application/pdf
Extent
15 p.
Extension
DescriptiveEvent
Type
Citation
DateTime (encoding = w3cdtf)
2015
AssociatedObject
Name
Journal of Climate
Type
Journal
Relationship
Has part
Detail
838-852
Identifier (type = volume and issue)
28(2)
Reference (type = url)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00453.1
Language
LanguageTerm (authority = ISO 639-3:2007); (type = text)
English
Subject (authority = LCSH)
Topic
Sea level--Mathematical models
RelatedItem (type = host)
TitleInfo
Title
Kopp Robert E. Collection
Identifier (type = local)
rucore30119200001
Location
PhysicalLocation (authority = marcorg); (displayLabel = Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey)
NjNbRU
Identifier (type = doi)
doi:10.7282/T3RR217T
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Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder.
Copyright
Status
Copyright protected
Availability
Status
Open
Reason
Permission or license
RightsEvent
Type
Permission or license
AssociatedObject
Type
License
Name
Multiple author license v. 1
Detail
I hereby grant to Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (Rutgers) the non-exclusive right to retain, reproduce, and distribute the deposited work (Work) in whole or in part, in and from its electronic format, without fee. This agreement does not represent a transfer of copyright to Rutgers.Rutgers may make and keep more than one copy of the Work for purposes of security, backup, preservation, and access and may migrate the Work to any medium or format for the purpose of preservation and access in the future. Rutgers will not make any alteration, other than as allowed by this agreement, to the Work.I represent and warrant to Rutgers that the Work is my original work. I also represent that the Work does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe or violate any rights of others.I further represent and warrant that I have obtained all necessary rights to permit Rutgers to reproduce and distribute the Work and that any third-party owned content is clearly identified and acknowledged within the Work.By granting this license, I acknowledge that I have read and agreed to the terms of this agreement and all related RUcore and Rutgers policies.
RightsEvent
Type
Publication notice
Detail
© Copyright 2015 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org.
RightsHolder (type = corporate)
Name
American Meteorological Society
Role
Copyright holder
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RULTechMD (ID = TECHNICAL1)
ContentModel
Document
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