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Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites

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TypeOfResource
Text
TitleInfo
Title
Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites
Name (authority = orcid); (authorityURI = http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/identifiers/orcid.html); (type = personal); (valueURI = http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4016-9428)
NamePart (type = family)
Kopp
NamePart (type = given)
Robert E.
Affiliation
Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Horton
NamePart (type = given)
Radley M.
Affiliation
Columbia University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Little
NamePart (type = given)
Christopher M.
Affiliation
Princeton University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Mitrovica
NamePart (type = given)
Jerry X.
Affiliation
Harvard University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Oppenheimer
NamePart (type = given)
Michael
Affiliation
Princeton University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Rasmussen
NamePart (type = given)
D. J.
Affiliation
Rhodium Group
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Strauss
NamePart (type = given)
Benjamin H.
Affiliation
Climate Central
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Tebaldi
NamePart (type = given)
Claudia
Affiliation
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (authority = RutgersOrg-Department); (type = corporate)
NamePart
Earth and Planetary Sciences
Name (authority = RutgersOrg-School); (type = corporate)
NamePart
School of Arts and Sciences (SAS) (New Brunswick)
Genre (authority = RULIB-FS)
Article, Refereed
Genre (authority = NISO JAV)
Corrected Version of Record (CVoR)
Note (type = peerReview)
Peer reviewed
OriginInfo
DateIssued (encoding = w3cdtf); (keyDate = yes); (qualifier = exact)
2014
Abstract (type = Abstract)
Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settle- ments, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate dif- ferent risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the com- ing decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5 – 1.2 m under representa- tive concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4 – 0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3 – 0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceano- graphic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.
PhysicalDescription
InternetMediaType
application/pdf
Extent
38 p.
Extension
DescriptiveEvent
Type
Citation
DateTime (encoding = w3cdtf)
2014
AssociatedObject
Name
Earth's Future
Type
Journal
Relationship
Has part
Detail
383-406
Identifier (type = volume and issue)
2(8)
Reference (type = url)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000239
Language
LanguageTerm (authority = ISO 639-3:2007); (type = text)
English
Subject (authority = LCSH)
Topic
Sea level
Subject (authority = LCSH)
Topic
Sea level--Mathematical models
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
Tide gauges
Subject (authority = LCSH)
Topic
Climatic changes
RelatedItem (type = references)
TitleInfo
Title
Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-gauge Sites
Identifier (type = doi)
http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7282/T39025WC
RelatedItem (type = host)
TitleInfo
Title
Kopp Robert E. Collection
Identifier (type = local)
rucore30119200001
Location
PhysicalLocation (authority = marcorg); (displayLabel = Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey)
NjNbRU
Identifier (type = doi)
doi:10.7282/T3H70HSP
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RightsDeclaration (AUTHORITY = FS); (ID = rulibRdec0004)
Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder.
Copyright
Status
Copyright protected
Availability
Status
Open
Reason
Permission or license
RightsEvent
Type
Permission or license
AssociatedObject
Type
License
Name
Multiple author license v. 1
Detail
I hereby grant to Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (Rutgers) the non-exclusive right to retain, reproduce, and distribute the deposited work (Work) in whole or in part, in and from its electronic format, without fee. This agreement does not represent a transfer of copyright to Rutgers.Rutgers may make and keep more than one copy of the Work for purposes of security, backup, preservation, and access and may migrate the Work to any medium or format for the purpose of preservation and access in the future. Rutgers will not make any alteration, other than as allowed by this agreement, to the Work.I represent and warrant to Rutgers that the Work is my original work. I also represent that the Work does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe or violate any rights of others.I further represent and warrant that I have obtained all necessary rights to permit Rutgers to reproduce and distribute the Work and that any third-party owned content is clearly identified and acknowledged within the Work.By granting this license, I acknowledge that I have read and agreed to the terms of this agreement and all related RUcore and Rutgers policies.
RightsEvent
Type
Publication notice
Detail
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
RightsHolder (type = personal)
Name
FamilyName
Kopp
GivenName
Robert
MiddleName
E.
Role
Copyright holder
RightsHolder (type = personal)
Name
FamilyName
Horton
GivenName
Radley
MiddleName
M.
Role
Copyright holder
RightsHolder (type = personal)
Name
FamilyName
Little
GivenName
Christopher
MiddleName
M.
Role
Copyright holder
RightsHolder (type = personal)
Name
FamilyName
Mitrovica
GivenName
Jerry
MiddleName
X.
Role
Copyright holder
RightsHolder (type = personal)
Name
FamilyName
Oppenheimer
GivenName
Michael
Role
Copyright holder
RightsHolder (type = personal)
Name
FamilyName
Rasmussen
GivenName
D.
MiddleName
J.
Role
Copyright holder
RightsHolder (type = personal)
Name
FamilyName
Strauss
GivenName
Benjamin
MiddleName
H.
Role
Copyright holder
RightsHolder (type = personal)
Name
FamilyName
Tebaldi
GivenName
Claudia
Role
Copyright holder
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RULTechMD (ID = TECHNICAL1)
ContentModel
Document
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