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Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity

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TypeOfResource
Text
TitleInfo
Title
Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity
TitleInfo (type = alternative)
Title
Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and center of gravity
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Thorson
NamePart (type = given)
James T.
Affiliation
Fisheries Resource Assessment and Monitoring Division (FRAM), Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), NOAA
Role
RoleTerm (type = text); (authority = marcrt)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Pinsky
NamePart (type = given)
Malin L.
Affiliation
Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, Rutgers University
Role
RoleTerm (type = text); (authority = marcrt)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Ward
NamePart (type = given)
Eric J.
Affiliation
Conservation Biology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), NOAA
Role
RoleTerm (type = text); (authority = marcrt)
author
Name (type = corporate); (authority = RutgersOrg-Department)
NamePart
Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources
Name (type = corporate); (authority = RutgersOrg-School)
NamePart
School of Environmental and Biological Sciences (SEBS)
Genre (authority = RULIB-FS)
Article, Refereed
Genre (authority = NISO JAV)
Accepted Manuscript (AM)
Note (type = peerReview)
Peer reviewed
OriginInfo
DateIssued (encoding = w3cdtf); (keyDate = yes)
2016
Abstract (type = Abstract)
1. Changing climate is already impacting the spatial distribution of many taxa, including bees, plants, birds, butterflies and fishes. A common goal is to detect range shifts in response to climate change, including changes in the centre of the population’s distribution (the centre of gravity, COG), population boundaries and area occupied. Conventional estimators, such as the abundance-weighted average (AWA) estimator for COG, confound range shifts with changes in the spatial distribution of available survey data and may be biased when the distribution of survey data shifts over time. AWA also does not estimate the standard error of COG in individual years and cannot incorporate data from multiple survey designs.

2. To explicitly account for changes in the spatial distribution of survey effort, we propose an alternative species distribution function (SDF) estimator. The SDF approach involves calculating distribution metrics, including COG, population boundary and area occupied, directly from the predicted species distribution or density function. We illustrate the SDF approach using a spatio-temporal model that is available as an R package. Using simulated data, we confirm that the SDF substantially decreases bias in COG estimates relative to the AWA estimator. We then illustrate the method by analysing data from two data sets spanning 1977–2013 for 18 marine fishes along the U.S. West Coast.

3. In our case study, the SDF estimator shows significant northward shifts for six of 18 species (with southward shifts for only 2), where two species (darkblotched and greenstriped rockfishes) have both a northward shift and a decreased area occupied. Pelagic species (e.g. Pacific hake and spiny dogfish) have more variable distribution than bottom-associated species. We also find substantial differences between AWA and SDF estimates of COG that are likely caused by shifts in sampling distribution (which affect the AWA but not the SDF estimator).

4. We caution that common estimators for range shift can yield inappropriate inference whenever sampling designs have shifted over time. We conclude by suggesting further improvements in model-based approaches to analysing climate impacts, including methods addressing the impact of local and regional temperature changes on species distribution.
Language
LanguageTerm (authority = ISO 639-3:2007); (type = text)
English
PhysicalDescription
InternetMediaType
application/pdf
Extent
37 p.
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
Abundance-weighted average
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
California Current
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
Centre of gravity
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
Climate change
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
Range shifts
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
Spatiotemporal model
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
Species distribution model
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
Center of gravity
Extension
DescriptiveEvent
Type
Citation
DateTime (encoding = w3cdtf)
2016
AssociatedObject
Name
Methods in Ecology and Evolution
Type
Journal
Relationship
Has part
Detail
990-1002
Identifier (type = volume and issue)
7(8)
Reference (type = url)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12567
RelatedItem (type = host)
TitleInfo
Title
Pinsky, Malin L.
Identifier (type = local)
rucore30149900001
Location
PhysicalLocation (authority = marcorg); (displayLabel = Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey)
NjNbRU
Identifier (type = doi)
doi:10.7282/T31V5HSF
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Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder.
Copyright
Status
Copyright protected
Availability
Status
Open
Reason
Permission or license
RightsEvent
Type
Permission or license
AssociatedObject
Type
License
Name
Multiple author license v. 1
Detail
I hereby grant to Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (Rutgers) the non-exclusive right to retain, reproduce, and distribute the deposited work (Work) in whole or in part, in and from its electronic format, without fee. This agreement does not represent a transfer of copyright to Rutgers.Rutgers may make and keep more than one copy of the Work for purposes of security, backup, preservation, and access and may migrate the Work to any medium or format for the purpose of preservation and access in the future. Rutgers will not make any alteration, other than as allowed by this agreement, to the Work.I represent and warrant to Rutgers that the Work is my original work. I also represent that the Work does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe or violate any rights of others.I further represent and warrant that I have obtained all necessary rights to permit Rutgers to reproduce and distribute the Work and that any third-party owned content is clearly identified and acknowledged within the Work.By granting this license, I acknowledge that I have read and agreed to the terms of this agreement and all related RUcore and Rutgers policies.
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ContentModel
Document
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1.6
DateCreated (point = end); (encoding = w3cdtf); (qualifier = exact)
2016-07-25T17:26:49
DateCreated (point = end); (encoding = w3cdtf); (qualifier = exact)
2016-07-25T17:28:41
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