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Using the Regional Social Accounting Matrix to Forecast Household Expenditures: a Fuzzy Approach

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Text
TitleInfo
Title
Using the Regional Social Accounting Matrix to Forecast Household Expenditures: a Fuzzy Approach
Name (authority = orcid); (authorityURI = http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/identifiers/orcid.html); (type = personal); (valueURI = http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2602-2465)
NamePart (type = family)
Lahr
NamePart (type = given)
Michael L.
Affiliation
Center for Urban Policy Research (CUPR), Rutgers University
Role
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author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Makarkina
NamePart (type = given)
Ganna V.
Affiliation
Instytut ekonomiky ta prava "KROK" (KROK University)
Role
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author
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Center for Urban Policy Research (CUPR)
Name (authority = RutgersOrg-School); (type = corporate)
NamePart
Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy
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Conference Paper or Lecture
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Author's original (AO)
OriginInfo
DateCreated (encoding = w3cdtf); (keyDate = yes); (qualifier = exact)
2017
Publisher
International Input-Output Association
Abstract (type = Abstract)
Using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to forecast the effect of exogenous shocks on the economy should be based on incorporate and error-free information that requires to update data in the SAM cells. Many techniques are available for updating a SAM. Here we use an approach based on the fuzzy set theory. Essentially, we restrict estimates of a matrix of direct input-output coefficients, the core of a matrix of SAM direct coefficients, to just seven possible size categories when they are updates. These rough categorical estimates are transformed to some quantitate functions with domain that reflects of coefficient sizes. These resulting model functions are interpreted as quasi probability density functions so a quasi-stochastic programing problem is used to estimate fuzzy impacts. The fuzzy results are compared to “true” ones, estimated via a classically created SAM, by calculating the estimation error. Finally, we explore factors of the error sensitivity.

In an empirical exercise, we use a 57-industry 2010 SAM for New Jersey and develop a SAM model with fuzzy direct input-output coefficients. Based on this model we forecast effect from relative and absolute changes for three groups of exogenous factors: the elements of the final demand, the institutional incomes and value added. We next extend the initial model by also fuzzifying other structural components of SAM: the matrix of value-added by industry coefficients and the matrix of institutional expenditures by industry coefficients and estimate the same effects. The fuzzy forecasts for the initial and “new” SAM model with fuzzy parameters are compared to results estimated when using a classical approach.

In all cases we obtain the small estimation error that makes it possible to consider a fuzzy approach as an efficient way for forecasting effects of exogenous shocks on the economy using inaccurate and incomplete SAM data
Language
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English
PhysicalDescription
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application/pdf
Extent
29 p.
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
Input-output
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
Updating
Subject (authority = local)
Topic
Regional economics
Extension
DescriptiveEvent
Type
Conference
Place
Mexico City, Mexico
DateTime (encoding = w3cdtf)
2015
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Conference
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23rd International Input-Output Conference, 23rd, June 22-26, 2015
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Citation
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2015
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Journal
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Has part
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https://www.iioa.org/conferences/23rd/papers.html
Name
23rd International Input-Output Conference
RelatedItem (type = host)
TitleInfo
Title
Lahr Michael L.
Identifier (type = local)
rucore30152600001
Location
PhysicalLocation (authority = marcorg); (displayLabel = Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey)
NjNbRU
Identifier (type = doi)
doi:10.7282/T3KH0RCK
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Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder.
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Open
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Multiple author license v. 1
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I hereby grant to Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (Rutgers) the non-exclusive right to retain, reproduce, and distribute the deposited work (Work) in whole or in part, in and from its electronic format, without fee. This agreement does not represent a transfer of copyright to Rutgers.Rutgers may make and keep more than one copy of the Work for purposes of security, backup, preservation, and access and may migrate the Work to any medium or format for the purpose of preservation and access in the future. Rutgers will not make any alteration, other than as allowed by this agreement, to the Work.I represent and warrant to Rutgers that the Work is my original work. I also represent that the Work does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe or violate any rights of others.I further represent and warrant that I have obtained all necessary rights to permit Rutgers to reproduce and distribute the Work and that any third-party owned content is clearly identified and acknowledged within the Work.By granting this license, I acknowledge that I have read and agreed to the terms of this agreement and all related RUcore and Rutgers policies.
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2017-11-28T13:39:45
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2017-11-28T13:39:45
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