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Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf

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TypeOfResource
Text
TitleInfo
Title
Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Morley
NamePart (type = given)
James W.
Affiliation
Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, Rutgers University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Selden
NamePart (type = given)
Rebecca L.
Affiliation
Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, Rutgers University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Latour
NamePart (type = given)
Robert J.
Affiliation
Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, Virginia, United States of America
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Frölicher
NamePart (type = given)
Thomas L.
Affiliation
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Seagraves
NamePart (type = given)
Richard J.
Affiliation
Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, Dover, Delaware, United States of America
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Pinsky
NamePart (type = given)
Malin L.
Affiliation
Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, Rutgers University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = marcrt); (type = text)
author
Name (authority = RutgersOrg-Department); (type = corporate)
NamePart
Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources
Name (authority = RutgersOrg-School); (type = corporate)
NamePart
School of Environmental and Biological Sciences (SEBS)
Genre (authority = RULIB-FS)
Article, Refereed
Genre (authority = NISO JAV)
Version of Record (VoR)
Note (type = peerReview)
Peer reviewed
OriginInfo
DateIssued (encoding = w3cdtf); (keyDate = yes)
2018
Abstract (type = Abstract)
Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in distribution have already posed challenges for living marine resource management, and there is a strong need for projections of how species might be impacted by future changes in ocean temperatures during the 21st century. We modeled thermal habitat for 686 marine species in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from the North American continental shelves. These habitat models were coupled to output from sixteen general circulation models that were run under high (RCP 8.5) and low (RCP 2.6) future greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st century to produce 32 possible future outcomes for each species. The models generally agreed on the magnitude and direction of future shifts for some species (448 or 429 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively), but strongly disagreed for other species (116 or 120 respectively). This allowed us to identify species with more or less robust predictions. Future shifts in species distributions were generally poleward and followed the coastline, but also varied among regions and species. Species from the U.S. and Canadian west coast including the Gulf of Alaska had the highest projected magnitude shifts in distribution, and many species shifted more than 1000 km under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Following a strong mitigation scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement would likely produce substantially smaller shifts and less disruption to marine management efforts. Our projections offer an important tool for identifying species, fisheries, and management efforts that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Language
LanguageTerm (authority = ISO 639-3:2007); (type = text)
English
PhysicalDescription
InternetMediaType
application/pdf
Extent
28 pages
Extension
DescriptiveEvent
Type
Citation
DateTime (encoding = w3cdtf)
2018
AssociatedObject
Name
PLOS One
Type
Journal
Relationship
Has part
Identifier (type = volume and issue)
13(5)
Reference (type = url)
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0196127
RelatedItem (type = host)
TitleInfo
Title
Pinsky, Malin L.
Identifier (type = local)
rucore30149900001
RelatedItem (type = host)
TitleInfo
Title
Morley, James W.
Identifier (type = local)
rucore30235200001
Location
PhysicalLocation (authority = marcorg); (displayLabel = Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey)
NjNbRU
Identifier (type = doi)
doi:10.7282/T3377D4V
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RightsDeclaration (AUTHORITY = FS); (TYPE = [FS] statement #1); (ID = rulibRdec0004)
Copyright for scholarly resources published in RUcore is retained by the copyright holder. By virtue of its appearance in this open access medium, you are free to use this resource, with proper attribution, in educational and other non-commercial settings. Other uses, such as reproduction or republication, may require the permission of the copyright holder.
Copyright
Status
Copyright protected
Availability
Status
Open
Reason
Permission or license
RightsEvent
Type
Permission or license
AssociatedObject
Type
License
Name
Multiple author license v. 1
Detail
I hereby grant to Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (Rutgers) the non-exclusive right to retain, reproduce, and distribute the deposited work (Work) in whole or in part, in and from its electronic format, without fee. This agreement does not represent a transfer of copyright to Rutgers.Rutgers may make and keep more than one copy of the Work for purposes of security, backup, preservation, and access and may migrate the Work to any medium or format for the purpose of preservation and access in the future. Rutgers will not make any alteration, other than as allowed by this agreement, to the Work.I represent and warrant to Rutgers that the Work is my original work. I also represent that the Work does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe or violate any rights of others.I further represent and warrant that I have obtained all necessary rights to permit Rutgers to reproduce and distribute the Work and that any third-party owned content is clearly identified and acknowledged within the Work.By granting this license, I acknowledge that I have read and agreed to the terms of this agreement and all related RUcore and Rutgers policies.
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Technical

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ContentModel
Document
CreatingApplication
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1.6
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PDFlib+PDI 8.0.2p1 (C++/Win64); modified using iTextSharp™ 5.5.3 ©2000-2014 iText Group NV (AGPL-version)
DateCreated (point = start); (encoding = w3cdtf); (qualifier = exact)
2018-05-02T08:30:30
DateCreated (point = start); (encoding = w3cdtf); (qualifier = exact)
2018-05-02T08:30:19
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