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Audience expectations in international bargaining

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TitleInfo
Title
Audience expectations in international bargaining
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Walsh
NamePart (type = given)
David Hunter
DisplayForm
David Hunter Walsh
Role
RoleTerm (authority = RULIB)
author
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Levy
NamePart (type = given)
Jack S.
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Jack S. Levy
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Advisory Committee
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chair
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Lau
NamePart (type = given)
Richard
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Richard Lau
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Advisory Committee
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internal member
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Poast
NamePart (type = given)
Paul
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Paul Poast
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Advisory Committee
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internal member
Name (type = personal)
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Saunders
NamePart (type = given)
Elizabeth
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Elizabeth Saunders
Affiliation
Advisory Committee
Role
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outside member
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Rutgers University
Role
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degree grantor
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NamePart
School of Graduate Studies
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school
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Text
Genre (authority = marcgt)
theses
OriginInfo
DateCreated (qualifier = exact)
2018
DateOther (qualifier = exact); (type = degree)
2018-10
CopyrightDate (encoding = w3cdtf)
2018
Place
PlaceTerm (type = code)
xx
Language
LanguageTerm (authority = ISO639-2b); (type = code)
eng
Abstract (type = abstract)
This dissertation project proposes a novel theoretical framework for understanding the
constraining role that opinionated audiences play in international bargaining. The well-known
audience cost paradigm assumes that domestic audiences have a strong general
preference for their leader making good on the threats they issue, which has led to a number
of serious empirical challenges for that paradigm. I argue on psychological grounds that
audiences' reactionary tendencies to policy shifts of all kinds effectively generate a similar
but distinct expectation cost; these patterns of reaction, when fully understood, can explain
a wide range of empirical phenomena in international security, including but not limited to
those with which audience cost theory is concerned.

The theory indicates that: the median voter theorem generally does not hold over time;
positive reactions to popular shifts are always weaker than they would otherwise be; and,
ultimately, acting in an inconsistent manner leads inevitably and unconditionally to a loss
of domestic approval which can be used for signaling purposes in international bargaining.
Most importantly, this theory can provide a unique and more proper explanation for
the democratic peace phenomenon: the generally dovish attitudes that democracies' audiences
have toward other democracies interact with their deviations from classical utility maximization
to produce a virtuous cycle of non-conflict.

Most chapters constitute empirical tests of the theory, focusing on the quantifiable existence of expectation costs as well as their qualitative nuance. Nonlinear regression models on ANES panel data exhibit the fact that voters' reactions to policy shifts as they perceive them are subject to loss aversion, as predicted by prospect theory. Qualitative studies of the four cases in which a U.S. president violated a major campaign promise relating to foreign policy provide more comprehensive evidence of the expectation cost mechanism at work in real and substantively important cases of international bargaining.
Subject (authority = RUETD)
Topic
Political Science
Subject (authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Collective bargaining--International business enterprises
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Title
Rutgers University Electronic Theses and Dissertations
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ETD
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TitleInfo
Title
School of Graduate Studies Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Identifier (type = local)
rucore10001600001
Identifier
ETD_9165
Identifier (type = doi)
doi:10.7282/t3-yfx5-6285
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electronic resource
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application/pdf
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text/xml
Note
Supplementary File: BibLaTeX bibliography file
Extent
1 online resource (378 pages : illustrations)
Note (type = degree)
Ph.D.
Note (type = bibliography)
Includes bibliographical references
Note (type = statement of responsibility)
by David Hunter Walsh
Location
PhysicalLocation (authority = marcorg); (displayLabel = Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey)
NjNbRU
Subject (authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Expectation (Psychology)
Genre (authority = ExL-Esploro)
ETD doctoral
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Rights

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The author owns the copyright to this work.
RightsHolder (type = personal)
Name
FamilyName
Walsh
GivenName
David
Role
Copyright Holder
RightsEvent
Type
Permission or license
DateTime (encoding = w3cdtf); (qualifier = exact); (point = start)
2018-08-27 09:47:48
AssociatedEntity
Name
David Walsh
Role
Copyright holder
Affiliation
Rutgers University. School of Graduate Studies
AssociatedObject
Type
License
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Author Agreement License
Detail
I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.
Copyright
Status
Copyright protected
Availability
Status
Open
Reason
Permission or license
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Technical

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2018-10-05T11:41:00
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