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Essays on decision making
Descriptive
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Title
Essays on decision making
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Joseph
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George
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George Joseph
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Sopher
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Barry Sopher
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Ira N Gang
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Piehl
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Anne
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Anne Morrison Piehl
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dissertation committee member
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Gottlieb
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Paul
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Advisory Committee
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Paul D Gottlieb
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Rutgers University
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Graduate School - New Brunswick
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theses
OriginInfo
DateCreated
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2008
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2008-05
Language
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English
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electronic
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xi, 153 pages
Abstract
The three essays in this dissertation examine individual decision making from a behavioral economics perspective. The first two essays report the results of an experiment that examine bidding behavior and belief formation in market-like environments with common values. In the first essay, using elicited beliefs of bidders on the value of the object at different stages of bidding, I examine whether information cascades and rational herding can be credited for the occurrence of the 'winners' curse' I find that the role of information cascades in the occurrence of the winner's curse is marginal and bidders tend to give more weight to private information in making the bidding decisions. The winner's curse is caused primarily by herding due to disconfirmation bias and conservatism in updating beliefs.
In the second essay, I extend the analysis to understand heuristics and biases like confirmation bias, disconfirmation bias, conservatism and overreaction exhibited by decision makers in the formation of subjective beliefs. The results show hardly any evidence for Bayesian updating by the bidders. Confirmation bias, disconfirmation bias and heuristics like conservatism and are observed in the formation of beliefs but are sensitive to treatment conditions. Non-optimal belief formation due to upwardly biased prior beliefs and conservatism in updating beliefs are responsible for overbidding in markets with sequential bids and common values. Another important finding is that Perfect Bayesian equilibrium behavior is consistent with the presence of biases and heuristics.
The third essay estimates a series of random parameter logit models of the college-to-work migration decisions of technology graduates and holders of doctorates within the United States. I employ detailed information on the migration-relevant characteristics of individuals, as well as on their actual origins and destinations at the metropolitan scale. The results demonstrate that science and technology graduates migrate to better educated places, other things equal; that PhD graduates pay greater attention to amenity characteristics than other degree holders; and that foreign students from some immigrant groups migrate to places where those groups are concentrated.
In the second essay, I extend the analysis to understand heuristics and biases like confirmation bias, disconfirmation bias, conservatism and overreaction exhibited by decision makers in the formation of subjective beliefs. The results show hardly any evidence for Bayesian updating by the bidders. Confirmation bias, disconfirmation bias and heuristics like conservatism and are observed in the formation of beliefs but are sensitive to treatment conditions. Non-optimal belief formation due to upwardly biased prior beliefs and conservatism in updating beliefs are responsible for overbidding in markets with sequential bids and common values. Another important finding is that Perfect Bayesian equilibrium behavior is consistent with the presence of biases and heuristics.
The third essay estimates a series of random parameter logit models of the college-to-work migration decisions of technology graduates and holders of doctorates within the United States. I employ detailed information on the migration-relevant characteristics of individuals, as well as on their actual origins and destinations at the metropolitan scale. The results demonstrate that science and technology graduates migrate to better educated places, other things equal; that PhD graduates pay greater attention to amenity characteristics than other degree holders; and that foreign students from some immigrant groups migrate to places where those groups are concentrated.
Note
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Ph.D.
Note
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Includes bibliographical references (p. 137-146).
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Topic
Economics
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Topic
Decision making
Subject
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Topic
Economics
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Graduate School - New Brunswick Electronic Theses and Dissertations
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rucore19991600001
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http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.2/rucore10001600001.ETD.17335
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doi:10.7282/T35X2981
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ETD doctoral
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Rights
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The author owns the copyright to this work.
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Copyright protected
Availability
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Open
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Name
GEORGE JOSEPH
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Rutgers University. Graduate School - New Brunswick
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Non-exclusive ETD license
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Author Agreement License
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I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.
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