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Variations in Northern Hemisphere snowfall: an analysis of historical trends and the projected response to anthropogenic forcing in the twenty-first century
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Title
Variations in Northern Hemisphere snowfall: an analysis of historical trends and the projected response to anthropogenic forcing in the twenty-first century
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Title
Analysis of historical trends and the projected response to anthropogenic forcing in the twenty-first century
Name
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Krasting
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John P.
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John P. Krasting
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author
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Broccoli
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Anthony
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Advisory Committee
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Anthony J Broccoli
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chair
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Robock
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Alan
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Alan Robock
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Robinson
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David
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Advisory Committee
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David A Robinson
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Stenchikov
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Georgiy
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Advisory Committee
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Georgiy Stenchikov
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internal member
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Colle
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Brian
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Advisory Committee
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Brian Colle
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Rutgers University
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Graduate School - New Brunswick
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theses
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2008
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2008-10
Language
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English
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electronic
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application/pdf
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text/xml
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xvi, 183 pages
Abstract
Snowfall is an important feature of the Earth's climate system that has the ability to influence both the natural world and human activity. This dissertation examines past and future changes in snowfall related to increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Snowfall observations for North America, derived snowfall products for the Northern Hemisphere, and simulations performed with 13 coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models are analyzed.
The analysis of the spatial pattern of simulated annual trends on a grid point basis from 1951 to 1999 indicates that a transition zone exists above 60° N latitude across the Northern Hemisphere that separates negative trends in annual snowfall in the mid-latitudes and positive trends at higher latitudes. Regional analysis of observed annual snowfall indicates that statistically significant trends are found in western North America, Japan, and southern Russia. A majority of the observed historical trends in annual snowfall elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, however, are not statistically significant and this result is consistent with model simulations.
Projections of future snowfall indicate the presence of a similar transition zone between negative and positive snowfall trends that corresponds with the area between the
-10 to -15° C isotherms of the multi-model mean temperature of the late twentieth century in each of the fall, winter, and spring seasons. Redistributions of snowfall throughout the entire snow season are likely -- even in locations where there is little change in annual snowfall. Changes in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow contribute to decreases in snowfall across most Northern Hemisphere regions, while changes in precipitation typically contribute to increases in snowfall. Snowfall events less than or equal to 5 cm are found to decrease in the future across most of the Northern Hemisphere, while snowfall events greater than or equal to 20 cm increase in some
locations, such as northern Quebec. A signal-to-noise analysis reveals that the projected
changes in snowfall are likely to become apparent during the twenty-first century for most locations in the Northern Hemisphere.
The analysis of the spatial pattern of simulated annual trends on a grid point basis from 1951 to 1999 indicates that a transition zone exists above 60° N latitude across the Northern Hemisphere that separates negative trends in annual snowfall in the mid-latitudes and positive trends at higher latitudes. Regional analysis of observed annual snowfall indicates that statistically significant trends are found in western North America, Japan, and southern Russia. A majority of the observed historical trends in annual snowfall elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, however, are not statistically significant and this result is consistent with model simulations.
Projections of future snowfall indicate the presence of a similar transition zone between negative and positive snowfall trends that corresponds with the area between the
-10 to -15° C isotherms of the multi-model mean temperature of the late twentieth century in each of the fall, winter, and spring seasons. Redistributions of snowfall throughout the entire snow season are likely -- even in locations where there is little change in annual snowfall. Changes in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow contribute to decreases in snowfall across most Northern Hemisphere regions, while changes in precipitation typically contribute to increases in snowfall. Snowfall events less than or equal to 5 cm are found to decrease in the future across most of the Northern Hemisphere, while snowfall events greater than or equal to 20 cm increase in some
locations, such as northern Quebec. A signal-to-noise analysis reveals that the projected
changes in snowfall are likely to become apparent during the twenty-first century for most locations in the Northern Hemisphere.
Note
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Ph.D.
Note
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Includes bibliographical references (p. 98-108).
Subject
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Topic
Atmospheric Science
Subject
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Topic
Snow--Northern Hemisphere
Subject
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Topic
Precipitation variability--Northern Hemisphere
Subject
(ID = SUBJ4);
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Topic
Climatic changes--Northern Hemisphere
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Graduate School - New Brunswick Electronic Theses and Dissertations
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rucore19991600001
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http://hdl.rutgers.edu/1782.2/rucore10001600001.ETD.17510
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ETD_1254
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doi:10.7282/T3JH3MHJ
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ETD doctoral
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The author owns the copyright to this work.
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John Krasting
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Rutgers University. Graduate School - New Brunswick
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Non-exclusive ETD license
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I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.
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