Rutgers University Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Identifier (type = RULIB)
ETD
RelatedItem (type = host)
TitleInfo
Title
Graduate School - Newark Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Identifier (type = local)
rucore10002600001
Note (type = degree)
Ph.D.
Note (type = bibliography)
Includes bibliographical references
Note (type = vita)
Includes vita
Note (type = statement of responsibility)
by Jie Xu
PhysicalDescription
Form (authority = gmd)
electronic resource
InternetMediaType
application/pdf
InternetMediaType
text/xml
Extent
viii, 204 p. : ill.
Abstract (type = abstract)
This dissertation presents a systematic approach to identify the determinants of gun shooting and forecast the distribution of gun shooting. Using frameworks of opportunities theories and social disorganization theories, this study examines the influences of urban features, including public housing, bus stops, liquor stores and bars, and schools, and neighborhood characteristics, on variations of rates of gun shooting in Newark and Irvington, NJ. A crime forecasting model is built based on the results of the determinants analyses in order to predict future shooting distributions. This study introduces a spatial statistics method, Conditional Locational Interdependence (CLI), to identify crime generators. CLI overcomes the limitations of current common method that requires arbitrarily determining the polygon size. In addition, this study utilizes several data analyses to address the spatial interdependence of the data. Besides, to address the non-Gaussian and spatial dependence of the data, poisson regression and negative binomial regression are employed and compared by adding spatial lag as one of the predictors. Further, smoothing method is used to convert census data to smaller units. Finally, risk terrain modeling is used to build a forecasting model to predict the distributions of gun shooting. The results show that gun shooting is not randomly distributed throughout the study area but rather is concentrated in a statistically significant way around major facilities: public housing, bus stops, liquor stores and bars, and middle and high schools. Also, shooting is clustered in poor neighborhoods with high single parents rate, low ethnic heterogeneity, and high jobless rate. This research provides another tool in establishing how risk clusters emerge and influence the distribution of crime. The clustering that takes place relates not only to the interrelationship between crime incidents but also to interdependence established between crime behavior, facilities, and neighborhoods. This study also has its implications in theory and police practice. This study supports social disorganization theory and opportunities theories. This study demonstrates a systematic method to identify the determinants and forecast the distribution of criminal events, which can help the police to allocate their limited resources more effectively and efficiently.
I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.