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Could geoengineering or a regional nuclear warproduce a food crisis in the 21st century?

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TitleInfo
Title
Could geoengineering or a regional nuclear warproduce a food crisis in the 21st century?
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Xia
NamePart (type = given)
Lili
NamePart (type = date)
1982-
DisplayForm
Lili Xia
Role
RoleTerm (authority = RULIB)
author
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Robock
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Alan
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Alan Robock
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Advisory Committee
Role
RoleTerm (authority = RULIB)
chair
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Carlton
NamePart (type = given)
Ann Marie
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Ann Marie Carlton
Affiliation
Advisory Committee
Role
RoleTerm (authority = RULIB)
internal member
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Broccoli
NamePart (type = given)
Anthony J
DisplayForm
Anthony J Broccoli
Affiliation
Advisory Committee
Role
RoleTerm (authority = RULIB)
internal member
Name (type = personal)
NamePart (type = family)
Tilmes
NamePart (type = given)
Simone
DisplayForm
Simone Tilmes
Affiliation
Advisory Committee
Role
RoleTerm (authority = RULIB)
outside member
Name (type = corporate)
NamePart
Rutgers University
Role
RoleTerm (authority = RULIB)
degree grantor
Name (type = corporate)
NamePart
Graduate School - New Brunswick
Role
RoleTerm (authority = RULIB)
school
TypeOfResource
Text
Genre (authority = marcgt)
theses
OriginInfo
DateCreated (qualifier = exact)
2014
DateOther (qualifier = exact); (type = degree)
2014-05
Place
PlaceTerm (type = code)
xx
Language
LanguageTerm (authority = ISO639-2b); (type = code)
eng
Abstract (type = abstract)
Anthropogenic climate changes could affect agricultural productivity due to changes in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and CO2 concentration. To be well prepared for possible futures, it is necessary to study yield changes of major crops under different climate scenarios. Here I consider two situations: solar radiation management geoengineering and a regional nuclear war. Although I certainly do not advocate either scenario, we cannot exclude the possibilities: if global warming is getting worse, the world might consider deliberately manipulating global temperature; if nuclear weapons still exist, we might face a nuclear war catastrophe. I used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model to simulate crop yield changes in China under different climate scenarios. Before agriculture simulations, I first evaluated DSSAT for rice, maize and wheat yields in China. Both G3S geoengineering (reducing solar radiation to balance radiative forcing of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5)) and G2 geoengineering hve no significant impact on Chinese rice production and combined with the CO2 fertilization effect, the cooling effect due to geoengineering would improve Chinese maize production by 10% and 14%, respectively. The different responses to G3S and G2 are due to the stronger cooling effect of G2 compared with their reference cases, RCP4.5 and 1pctCO2, respectively. The termination of G2 geoengineering shows negligible impacts on rice production but a 20 Mt (12%) reduction of maize production. The CO2 fertilization effect compensates for the deleterious impacts of climate changes due to G2 geoengineering on rice production, increasing rice production by 8.6 Mt and enhances maize production in G2, contributing 8 Mt (42%) to the total increase. A regional nuclear war would reduce annual rice production by 23 Mt (24%), maize production by 41 Mt (23%), and wheat production by 23 Mt (50%). This reduction of food availability would continue, with gradually decreasing amplitude, for more than a decade. Assuming these impacts are indicative of those in other major grain producers, a nuclear war using much less than 1% of the current global arsenal could produce a global food crisis and put a billion people at risk of famine.
Subject (authority = RUETD)
Topic
Atmospheric Science
RelatedItem (type = host)
TitleInfo
Title
Rutgers University Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Identifier (type = RULIB)
ETD
Identifier
ETD_5407
PhysicalDescription
Form (authority = gmd)
electronic resource
InternetMediaType
application/pdf
InternetMediaType
text/xml
Extent
xv, 115 p. : ill.
Note (type = degree)
Ph.D.
Note (type = bibliography)
Includes bibliographical references
Note (type = statement of responsibility)
by Lili Xia
Subject (authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Environmental geotechnology
Subject (authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Climatic changes--Effect of nuclear explosions on
Subject (authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Climatic changes--Effect of solar activity on
Subject (authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Climatic changes--Environmental aspects
Subject (authority = ETD-LCSH)
Topic
Food security
RelatedItem (type = host)
TitleInfo
Title
Graduate School - New Brunswick Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Identifier (type = local)
rucore19991600001
Location
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NjNbRU
Identifier (type = doi)
doi:10.7282/T3VH5M45
Genre (authority = ExL-Esploro)
ETD doctoral
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Rights

RightsDeclaration (ID = rulibRdec0006)
The author owns the copyright to this work.
RightsHolder (type = personal)
Name
FamilyName
Xia
GivenName
Lili
Role
Copyright Holder
RightsEvent
Type
Permission or license
DateTime (encoding = w3cdtf); (qualifier = exact); (point = start)
2014-04-08 10:47:43
AssociatedEntity
Name
Lili Xia
Role
Copyright holder
Affiliation
Rutgers University. Graduate School - New Brunswick
AssociatedObject
Type
License
Name
Author Agreement License
Detail
I hereby grant to the Rutgers University Libraries and to my school the non-exclusive right to archive, reproduce and distribute my thesis or dissertation, in whole or in part, and/or my abstract, in whole or in part, in and from an electronic format, subject to the release date subsequently stipulated in this submittal form and approved by my school. I represent and stipulate that the thesis or dissertation and its abstract are my original work, that they do not infringe or violate any rights of others, and that I make these grants as the sole owner of the rights to my thesis or dissertation and its abstract. I represent that I have obtained written permissions, when necessary, from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis or dissertation and will supply copies of such upon request by my school. I acknowledge that RU ETD and my school will not distribute my thesis or dissertation or its abstract if, in their reasonable judgment, they believe all such rights have not been secured. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use all or part of this thesis or dissertation in future works, such as articles or books.
RightsEvent
DateTime (encoding = w3cdtf); (qualifier = exact); (point = start)
2014-05-31
DateTime (encoding = w3cdtf); (qualifier = exact); (point = end)
2014-11-30
Type
Embargo
Detail
Access to this PDF has been restricted at the author's request. It will be publicly available after November 30th, 2014.
Copyright
Status
Copyright protected
Availability
Status
Open
Reason
Permission or license
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Technical

RULTechMD (ID = TECHNICAL1)
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ETD
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windows xp
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