DescriptionThis dissertation develops an operational tool for predicting and monitoring drought applicable to the humid tropics. Using Sri Lanka as a case example, it examines whether droughts in the humid tropics are predictable on an operational basis, and investigates how moisture stress may be monitored as a season unfurls. Droughts in Sri Lanka occur when rainfall during the main cultivation season – the Maha (October-March) – fails. Such droughts profoundly impact rice production. From 1951-2008, there were 4 extreme [Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) <-2.0], 1 severe (-1.9